Does It Still Cashflow in 2026?
Five real listings, run through the same math we use on our own deals. Two work. Three don't. Here is how to tell them apart before you wire a dime.
Summary: We took five listings a doctor could pull up today, ran each one through our cash-on-cash math at current rates, and showed our work. Two cashflow. Three bleed. The difference is never the market. It is the number.
Let's concede the objection first, because it is a fair one. At today's prices and today's rates, most listings do not cashflow. You can pull up a hundred properties tonight and ninety-five of them will lose money the day you close. The math is the math. We are not going to argue with it.
But the objection misses something. A deal is not the same thing as a listing.
Good deals are found, not listed. They are the mispriced duplex the agent has not repositioned yet. The fourplex renting three hundred dollars under market because the owner is tired. The building nobody else ran the numbers on because the photos were bad.
Toilets exist. So does math. The doctors who make this work are not luckier than you. They just run every property through the same filter before they fall in love with it.
The filter, applied to five real listings.
The five teardowns
Deal 1: The mispriced Spokane duplex Works
Two units, both at market rent, priced off last year's comps in a Spokane-like neighborhood.
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| List price | $310,000 |
| Down payment (25%) | $77,500 |
| Loan amount | $232,500 |
| Rate (30-yr fixed) | 7.10% |
| Monthly principal & interest | −$1,562 |
| Taxes + insurance | −$285 |
| PM fee (10% of rent) | −$290 |
| Maintenance + capex reserve | −$232 |
| Vacancy allowance (5%) | −$145 |
| Market rent (2 units @ $1,450) | +$2,900 |
| Net monthly cashflow | +$386 |
| Cap rate | 7.5% |
| Cash-on-cash return | 6.0% |
Cap rate lands at 7.5%, above the 7.1% you are borrowing at. That gap is the whole game. When the property earns more than the loan costs, the tenants pay the mortgage and hand you $386 a month for owning the asset. Nobody listed this as a deal. Somebody ran the math and found one.
Deal 2: The under-rented fourplex Works
Four units renting $975 each, about $200 under the block. The table shows the numbers after rents are brought to market.
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| List price | $500,000 |
| Down payment (25%) | $125,000 |
| Loan amount | $375,000 |
| Rate (30-yr fixed) | 7.10% |
| Monthly principal & interest | −$2,520 |
| Taxes + insurance | −$545 |
| PM fee (10% of rent) | −$470 |
| Maintenance + capex reserve | −$376 |
| Vacancy allowance (5%) | −$235 |
| Market rent (4 units @ $1,175) | +$4,700 |
| Net monthly cashflow | +$554 |
| Cap rate | 7.4% |
| Cash-on-cash return | 5.3% |
On paper today, this fourplex barely breaks even, and most buyers scroll past the weak in-place rents. We see the gap. Bring the four units from $3,900 to $4,700 over a year or two and the building throws off $554 a month. It also gets worth more: adding roughly $9,600 of net income a year at a 7% cap creates about $137,000 of value. That is forced appreciation. You buy the mismanagement and fix it, instead of praying the market floats you up.
Deal 3: The median house at asking No
A pretty single-family in an expensive metro, bought at list for the school district.
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| List price | $650,000 |
| Down payment (25%) | $162,500 |
| Loan amount | $487,500 |
| Rate (30-yr fixed) | 7.10% |
| Monthly principal & interest | −$3,276 |
| Taxes + insurance | −$680 |
| PM fee (10% of rent) | −$310 |
| Maintenance + capex reserve | −$248 |
| Vacancy allowance (5%) | −$155 |
| Market rent | +$3,100 |
| Net monthly cashflow | −$1,569 |
| Cap rate | 3.1% |
| Cash-on-cash return | −11.6% |
It is a lovely home and a terrible rental. A $650,000 house that rents for $3,100 has a cap rate of 3.1%, and you are borrowing at 7.1%. When the cap rate is lower than your mortgage rate, that is a no. Every month you would feed this property $1,569 out of your W-2 income for the privilege of owning it. That is not an investment. That is a second job that pays you to show up.
Deal 4: The pretty turnkey No
Fresh paint, staged photos, a glossy PDF with the word "turnkey" on the cover.
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| List price | $285,000 |
| Down payment (25%) | $71,250 |
| Loan amount | $213,750 |
| Rate (30-yr fixed) | 7.10% |
| Monthly principal & interest | −$1,436 |
| Taxes + insurance | −$300 |
| PM fee (10% of rent) | −$173 |
| Maintenance + capex reserve | −$138 |
| Vacancy allowance (5%) | −$86 |
| Market rent | +$1,725 |
| Net monthly cashflow | −$408 |
| Cap rate | 4.3% |
| Cash-on-cash return | −6.9% |
The provider already took their margin, which is why the rent is only $1,725 on a $285,000 house. Pretty is not a number. Run it and the cap rate is 4.3% against a 7.1% loan, so it loses $408 every month. Turnkey usually means someone else got the deal and you got the retail price. If the seller did the work, the seller kept the upside.
Deal 5: The condo with the HOA No
The rent almost covers the mortgage. Then the HOA shows up.
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| List price | $340,000 |
| Down payment (25%) | $85,000 |
| Loan amount | $255,000 |
| Rate (30-yr fixed) | 7.10% |
| Monthly principal & interest | −$1,714 |
| Taxes + insurance | −$250 |
| HOA dues | −$420 |
| PM fee (10% of rent) | −$205 |
| Maintenance + capex reserve | −$103 |
| Vacancy allowance (5%) | −$103 |
| Market rent | +$2,050 |
| Net monthly cashflow | −$745 |
| Cap rate | 3.4% |
| Cash-on-cash return | −10.5% |
Four hundred and twenty dollars a month, every month, whether the unit is full or empty, and the board can raise it whenever the roof needs work. That single line turns a marginal condo into a $745 monthly hole, with a 3.4% cap rate against a 7.1% loan. A dues check you do not control is a partner you did not choose. We mostly pass on condos for exactly this reason.
Three rules that sort the two from the three
Run enough of these and the pattern stops being subtle.
If the cap rate is lower than your mortgage rate, that's a no.
It is the fastest gut check there is. The property has to earn more than the money costs, or the difference comes out of your paycheck every month. Deals 3, 4, and 5 all failed this one test before we finished the table.
Live where you want, invest where it makes sense.
Deal 3 fails in an expensive metro and Deal 1 works two time zones away, and that is not an accident. You do not have to buy in your own zip code. Coastal doctors build cashflow in Spokane and Dallas and Cleveland all the time. Your home is a lifestyle decision. Your rentals are a math decision. Stop making them the same decision.
Buy hidden value, don't pray for appreciation.
The two deals that worked were not magic. One was mispriced. One was under-rented. In both, the profit was sitting in plain sight, waiting for someone to correct a seller's mistake. Find the mismanaged, the mispriced, the tired landlord, and force the appreciation. Make the value. Do not wait for it.
One last thing
Rate environments change. The method doesn't.
Rates were 3% and these same rules applied. Rates are 7% and they still apply. When rates drop again, the doctors who learned to underwrite in a hard market will clean up, because the skill was never about cheap money. It was about running the number before you fall in love.
We refresh this teardown every quarter with new listings, because the market keeps moving and we want the examples current. The filter underneath it stays the same.
Don't quit medicine. Make it optional. One cashflowing deal at a time.
— Leti & Kenji
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Semi-Retired MD provides education, not tax, legal, or investment advice. Run everything here past your own licensed professionals. Draft prepared 2026-07-06 for internal review; all numbers marked VERIFY must be confirmed before publication.